“Black Friday” search data from Hitwise underscores how consumers are increasingly plugged-in to online retail research and deal hunting.
I sat in on a good session from Hitwise Research Director Heather Doughtery this week that looked back at Black Friday 2008 and offered some preliminary stats for Black Friday 2009. The findings are fairly predictable and mirror what we know from our own data: consumers are researching earlier and looking for deals. The bigger question for this season is to what degree the economy and unemployment will accelerate the thrifty, marketing-savvy behaviors already in play. Below are a few takeaways:
Black Friday searches start earlier each year. Per Hitwise, early “Black Friday” searches in 2006 started the week ending 9/30; for 2009 those same searches started the week ending 8/8. At this rate, “Christmas in July” may lose its oxymoron status by next year. Of course we’re talking searches, not purchases. But unless a retailer is sitting on headline-grabbing price reductions for late in the season, capturing mindshare early is crucial. Consumers need to know where the good deals are coming from, and a retailer may have to expend more effort now if they haven’t laid the groundwork already.
Black Friday sites receive the most traffic from “Black Friday” searches. This may seem like a shoulder-shrug finding, but the key players are worth a closer look. Per Hitwise, deal aggregators like BlackFriday.info and bfads.net received over 60% of “Black Friday” search traffic in 2008. Thus far in 2009, the audience for these sites has skewed female, younger (under 35) and less affluent (under $100k), but looking at historic trends for the full holiday period, Black Friday deal sites are also gaining ground with the 35+ crowd. For retailers interested in local search, it’s also notable that Black Friday website visitors in 2009 are indexing highest east of the Mississippi – especially in states like West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri.
Searches are growing for “Black Friday” terms tied to retail brands. Searches for branded “Black Friday” terms (e.g. “walmart black friday”) grew 41% between 2007 and 2008. This is most notable for big box retailers with mega brands and deep pockets, as “Black Friday” terms can be pricey. For others, there remain good SEO and content opportunities for capturing “Black Friday” searches tied to brand.
With regard to social media, the only 2008 data Hitwise noted was that 3% of traffic to Black Friday deal sites came from social networks. I would say that if any significant new variable exists for Black Friday 2009, it will come from platforms like Facebook and Twitter. Both have the ability to distribute special alerts and coupon codes quickly to an existing (and hopefully growing) group of retail fans and followers.
Of course the biggest unknown this holiday season are consumers themselves. Times are tough. It remains to be seen how much money folks will spend related to all those Black Friday bargains they’ve been busily researching. No amount of third-party click data can answer that question quite yet.
Glenn Lalich is VP of Research & Analysis at PM Digital.